Explanation of Indicator
The flooding created by hurricanes is a threat to the life and property of
coastal residents. The most critical threat is to those residents within
the category 1 hurricane evacuation/surge model zone developed by the
National Hurricane Center. This zone shows all areas that would be
inundated with water from a landfalling category 1 hurricane, defined
as having sustained winds of 74 to 95 miles per hour. The category 1
hurricane evacuation/surge model zone includes all of Florida’s barrier
islands, even those with areas of elevation above the category 1 level.
A 1993 study by the Florida Coastal Management Program (FCMP) indicates that nearly two million people reside within the category 1 zone. Populations within the category 1 hurricane evacuation/surge zone face a greater risk than those outside of this zone. The number of people within this zone is already significant, and continued growth increases the population at risk of damage from future storm events.
Data Characteristics
SOURCE
A 1993 report titled "Florida’s Coastal Future" was prepared for
the Florida Coastal Management Program, Florida Department of
Community Affairs, by the Southwest Florida Regional Planning
Council. For a copy of “Florida’s Coastal Future” contact the
Florida Coastal Management Program, Florida Department of Community
Affairs, 2740 Centerview Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32399-2100, or at
(904) 922-5438.
ACQUISITION
Hard copies of the reports are available at photocopying expense.
COLLECTION
The report reflects data from several sources. A series of county
population estimates was produced by the University of Florida’s
Bureau of Economic and Business Research’s Division of Population
Studies. Information on population at risk is from the eleven regional
planning councils’ Hurricane Evacuation Study: Technical Data Reports,
updated where necessary with locally derived information that is
commonly found in the comprehensive plans of local governments.
The Technical Data Reports are updated on an irregular basis; some
reports have not been updated since 1985. All Florida counties are
covered in the FCMP report.
Data Limitations
The data have not been collected with the same frequency or over
consistent time periods across all counties; this limits trend
analysis as well as inter-county comparisons. In addition the
methodology and assumptions, although generally consistent, do
contain variations depending on when the study was conducted and
by whom the study was conducted. For instance, two different models
were used in the various studies to determine storm surge inundation areas.
Recommendations
Alternative 1
The FCMP should create a statewide GIS system that overlays the
most current model output of storm surge inundation on a map
showing the spatial distribution of the population. The technology
and data are available, however the start-up costs may be high.
Alternative 2
Many counties with GIS capability are preparing this type of
information and it may be possible to collect the information
from those counties and assist other counties in preparing their
own GIS system. This information could then be combined by the
FCMP for use in a single report.
Alternative 3
Because local governments are required to update their comprehensive
plans every five years, which necessitates the calculation of updated
population at risk of inundation estimates, the regional planning
councils (RPCs) should establish a regular procedure for updating
the Technical Data Reports. Currently, there is no regular schedule
for updating the Technical Data Reports; instead the RPCs or the
Army Corps of Engineers has been updating the reports as funding
becomes available and as time permits. The FCMP and the RPCs should
work together to establish a regular funding mechanism for these studies.